Category: Picks

DET @ PHI – Week 3

Desean Jackson-hurt. Alshon Jeffrey-hurt. Nelson Agholor-hurt. Tim Jernigan-hurt. Malik Jackson-hurt. Carson Wentz took a shot last week that sent him back to the 2nd grade.  Philly is beat up right now & Lions Coach Matt Patricia chomping at the bit looking to take advantage. 

Ertz can’t catch every pass for the Eagles, and their running game has been stuck in neutra so far this year.  Detroit is relatively balanced on both sides of the ball, and has looked surprisingly good for their standards this season. Matt Stafford and the Lions can and will cover this, if not come away with the outright win.

With all the Eagles injuries above and Patricia still unwilling to unleash Stafford and spice up the mild Lions offensive play-calling, The Dog won’t be eating up the Over in this flavorless dish; Taking the Under here.

The Pick

DET + 7 

UNDER 48 

Two Woofs

NYG @ TB – Week 3

New York heads into this one with a newly appointed field general in Daniel Jones. Does that spark the Giants offense? The Dog thinks so. So long as the Giants make Saquon a major part of the game plan, they will have fixed their two biggest problems.

This line is too big to not take NYG. TB got out with a W on the road last week against a Panthers team that isn’t looking so good. They might give one back; they might prove they’ll be competitive.  The Dog going with NYG ATS +6.5 

By no means is this one going to be a shootout though.  How much is Pat Shurmur going to open the playbook for Daniel Jones? Bucs running game looks pretty average at best. The Dog says this one plays out as such.

Both teams will be so worried about getting the W that watching this one will be like watching paint dry.  A conservative chess checkers match. A field position, punt-fest, clock management symposium with either team winning by a FG or less. 

The Pick

NYG +6.5

UNDER 48

ATL @ IND – Week 3

Everyone wrote of the Colts when Andrew luck retired, but they could be 2-0 except for Adam Vinatieri missing 2 field goals and 3 extra points already.

Indy has one of the best offensive lines in the league and Marlon Mack is enjoying every second of it with 225 yards in 2 games. It gives Jacoby Brissett enough protection to give me confidence he can jockey these Colts.

Falcons Needed a late miracle TD to collect a big win over the Eagles on Sunday night. Lot of money on the Falcons brings this line down to as low as -1 at some points as it opened the week at -3. 

To hit the O/U, you’re going to need 6 TDs and 2 FGs.  Gonna be close, but when isn’t it. Vegas is good at what they do.

The Dog will be on premise for this one.  Home teams making a comeback this week and Indy to take this one.  If you can find Colts at -1 or -1.5; The Dog says hop all over it and Pound It!  Even Colts -2 still looks to be in your favor. The Dog is gonna get in on the Over in this one.

The Pick

IND -1

OVER 47

NYJ @ NE – Week 3

New England hasn’t given up a touchdown yet this season and Luke Falk isn’t going to break that streak.

Lot of people are going to default to taking New York Jets in this one saying that 23 is just too many points to spot ATS.  Doggy don’t think so. Here’s the why.  

New England has gone for 30 and 43 points this season. They haven’t let opponents into the endzone either.  That means that both those margins of victory would’ve covered this spread.

They’ve demonstrated that they are going to go out every game with one goal in mind;  Lay It On Thick Whilst Preserving The Shutout. Mark the Jets down as the 3rd victim of The Bill Belichick Body Bag Tour of 2019.  

That’s why The Dog likes the Pats ATS in this one.

People have been questioning why the Pats didn’t back off against Miami.  See what Kevin Van Noy has to say about it!  

The Dog doesn’t expect the Pats to buck trend and change their philosophy against an AFC East divisional opponent.  Pats will take it to the Jets for 60 minutes of football and won’t be letting up until after the final whistle blows.  

Belichick will be using this as another tune up game for getting Antonio Brown acclimated to the offense for when the games really matter, so I expect them to continue to try and rack up points & Lay It On Thick.  

Dog goin’ over.

The Pick

NE -23

OVER 43.5

DEN @ GB – Week 3

GB’s new offense with Matt Lafleur hasn’t clicked yet with only 31 points over 2 games.

Last week against the Vikings Aaron Rodgers and the pack got off to a very hot start but cooled off and never seemed to pull it back together. The second half looked like the McCarthty-coached sideline with Rodgers visibly upset. 

This Dog doesn’t feel ready to say the QB and coaching situation has been fixed up north. We all know what happens when Aaron doesn’t like you, just ask his family. 

The Packers’ defense has done a 180. Three woofs. Doggy Likey.

Denver has only given up 4 tuts in 2 games, and new head coach Vic fangio is one of the best defensive minds in the game. but Denver keeps it close enough to cover.

Joe Flacco clearly does not have a ton left in the tank, but last week the Broncos and Bears needed every second of the game to determine the winner. Both had staunch defenses. Using that game as some evidence, this Dog is convinced that this is going to feel just like the Packers and Bears season opener. 

This line and total feels perfectly set, but The Dog feel like it’s going to be low scoring and close. GB win with a Denver cover. This Dog likes this dog, but just barely.

The Pick

DEN +7.5

UNDER 43.5

One Woof

I’ll Take GB -6.5 if it moves that far.

GB -350

PIT @ SF – Week 3

Mason Rudolph didn’t embarrass himself last week coming in for an injured Ben Roethlisberger, but this week he has a whole new challenge going out to the west coast. Will he progress? Is the PIT offense just average now? No Brown, No Ben, No Bell… 

The vaunted PIT defense has not looked like themselves this year either, giving up 61 points in their first 2 games. Will MInkah Fitzpatrick change that? 

I wonder, is this run of competitive Pittsburgh twams coming to an abrupt end?

With all these questions, remember one of The Dog’s classic lessons: when things look confusing, stop thinking.

What QB are you going to take here? Mason Rudolph? Or, Jimmy G?

Would you want to play at home? Or, travel across the country on the road? 

K.I.S.S. Great Band. Great advice. Keep It Simple Stupid.

S.F. is 2-0 against spread this year while The Steelers are 0-2. I’m not buying that Pittsburgh has has what it takes to hang close and will have a long flight home after another tough loss.

Couple this with the fact that the Shannahan offense has proven it could hang some points on opponents, the OVER play is looking three-woofs.

The Pick

SF -6.5

OVER 44

Three Woofs

CAR @ ARI – Week 3

Do we think Cam and the Panthers are done yet? Will Cam even play? Kyler get his first win? There are a lot of questions in this matchup, but there is one thing This Dog feels very confident about. This one is going OVER.

Arizona’s opponents have looked like this each week so far: Strong Start, Slow Finish.

On the flip side, Arizona has looked like this: Slow Start, Strong Finish.

Until Kliff and crew prove otherwise, I am The Bird Dog pointing you to the Arizona OVERS. Play them all year! Strong Starts + Strong finishes = Pound the OVERs.

Cam’s status up in the air is a good thing in this Dog’s opinion. He was a notch above comatose so far this year. Kyle Allen? Cam Newton? What’s the difference?

The Ravens ran for over 182 against the Cards and I expect the same from a McCaffery looking to rebound. 

The Pick

CAR -3

OVER 46.5

Two Woofs

CIN @ BUF – Week 3

Cincinnati looked like ass last week against the Niners, but I hate to give so many points to a Buffalo team that I still think is mediocre. Yes they are 2-0 with two wins on the road, but they came against NYG and NYJ. Both of those teams have not proven to be a staunch competition by any means. 

Without AJ Green to bail him out, don’t expect Andy Dalton to be a difference maker – I’m not. Joe Mixon was shut down last week with only 17 yards. 

Bu, with Cole Beasley as his second best receiver, Josh Allen and the Bills aren’t exactly an offensive force to be reckoned with either.

Devin Singletary, the Bills promising rookie running back, would be the biggest impact player in my mind – but he is also banged up. 

The Dog isn’t going to overreact to the Bengals showing last week. I’m also liking the fact that The Bengals are 4-1 against the spread going back to last season.

Zac Taylor in his first year at Cincy needs a statement game. I’m going to say they keep this close enough to cover, maybe even leave Buffalo with a win.

The Pick

CIN +6

UNDER 44

Two Woofs

9/22 Update

Devin Singletary is out for this one and the Bills are still expected to cover 6. Bengals with the points should be a money maker this week.

MIA @ DAL – Week 3

Do you even need to read this? Yes the spread is 21 points, but the only way Dallas doesn’t cover is if Kenyan Drake somehow fumbles the ball 75 yards and recovers it for a touchdown 3 times because the cowboys are scoring at least 40 (in the first half).

Sure, there have been some valid concerns about the capabilities of the Cowboys defense, but not nearly as concerning as entire Miami Dolphins team, or what’s left of it. With one Fitzpatrick out (and the remaining one ineffective) Miami’s hopes of not completely embarrassing themselves for a 3rd time in a row now rest very delicately in the hands of Josh Rosen….

Miami has been outscored 102 – 10 in the first 2 regular season games and heading into Dallas it’s not getting any better. The only question remaining is who, between Zeek and Dak, will be padding the stats the most this Sunday.

The Dog is thinking Dallas by a billion so also the over.

The Pick

DAL -21

OVER 47.5

Two Woofs

TEN @ JAX – Week 3

The Dog took Tennessee in week 2 but it just wasn’t there.

In the week 2 recap I reminded you why I think Tennessee is going to be a mint this season.

I hear Titans… I think Three-woofs 🐶🐶🐶. I’ve been convinced that Tennessee will be a money maker this season so I’m taking the Jags this week. Dog. Cat. What’s the difference?

Let’s Rewind… The Jags went into Houston last week as a touchdown-plus dog and Gardner Minshew II essentially led the Jags to a straight up win. A few shitty camera angles and a lazy Nard Dawg made it an “L”.

Let’s rewind further… Week 1 the Jags were facing the best QB in the league and an offensive coach who had all offseason to scheme up how to start the season big. After that 10-point hole they dug themselves, the Jags kept pace and the game was much closer than the 40-26 score would imply.

This Jags team is getting no respect from the oddsmakers and that means it’s time for the big dog to eat.

Vrabel is proving that he has great gameplans and The Dog still thinks that the Titans are going to make us alot of money this season. Just not this week.

This Dog loves this home dog.

The Pick

JAX +1.5

Three Woofs