Category: Picks

LA @ SEA – Week 5

The Dog has to bounce back after a Dog Sh*t showing in Week 4. File this one under Need It AND Gotta Have It.

And after the Buccaneers put up 55 on them on their home turf, so do the Rams. Fortunately for the Rams, Seahawks don’t have the barrels of firepower that the Bucco’s do.  

Seahawks, let’s face it. Haven’t beaten anyone “GOOD” yet.  Wins over Bengals (garbage), Steelers (soon to be garbage), and Cardinals (not sure what they are).  Couldn’t beat a Drew Brees-less Saints team at home either.

Thursday night game means short week. This lends itself to the offenses.  Rams will go for 40 the second week in a row. This time, they won’t lose.

The Pick

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Rams +2

Over 49

Two WOOFs

CHI @ OAK – Week 5

I’m sitting here piling stuff onto the scale for this game, and everything seems to tip in favor of The Bears. 

The Bears just made it to London. The Raiders haven’t been in their own beds for over a week.

The Raiders have one of their better defense pieces in Vontaze Burfict suspended for the season. The Bears’ defense, on the other hand, got their tackle machine back in Roquan Smith. The Dog loved that Defense without him last week too!

Derek Carr has a passer rating approaching 100 and the offense is still chasing its tail. The Bears lose their starting QB and Chase Daniel arguably looks like an upgrade for the Bears offense.

The scale all points Bears. More often than not, that’s my queue to just do the opposite, but The Bears cover the 4.5 points in this one with another big defensive game.

Unders this year are 28-22 and with this Bears team I don’t see many points… Unless they come from their defense. I feel better about the side than the total here, but still like the under.

The Pick

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CHI -4.5

UNDER 41

Two Woofs

MIN @ NYG – WEEK 5

What is going on with the Vikings? Adam Thielen runs his mouth, Kirk Cousins apologizes, Zimmer ain’t happy about any of it, and Diggs wants out. 

Add all that drama with the fact that Delvin Cook got shut down last week by the Bears and what do you get? An offense that is closer to imploding than one that will figure it out. 

The Giants defense is doing ok vs the run (The Vikings bright spot) and pretty poor against the pass (The Vikings $28 million dollar problem)

Too confusing, let’s back it up the brain cells.

Vikings are playing their second game in a row on the road, outdoors. The G-Men are playing their second in a row at home. 

The Giants seem to be piecing it together, and the Vikings seems to be falling apart. This one could go either way, but I don’t expect the winner to run away with it. It’ll be close, so we’ll take the 5 points.

The Pick

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NYG +5

UNDER 45

Two Woofs

NE @ WAS – WEEK 5

The Dog loves a mindless pick like this. There’s not a lot to say about this one. 

The Patriots are the best team in the NFL right now. The Redskins are among the worst.

Washington does not really stand a chance against The Pats D. 

Washington does not really stand a chance against The Pats O. 

The videos of Jay Gruden may not be fresh, but I bet he’s not far off right now. Roasting a bone and chatting up some honeys. He’s not dumb. No amount of prep is going to change what is coming on Sunday. Take the day off.

New England covers and scores enough to hit the over so long as Billy B doesn’t pull Brady for a pick six.

P.S. From The Dog – Does anyone see this going to halftime without the Pats up at least 10? I don’t dabble much in the halves, but if that is available at 9.5 or less, I’ll look at that too.

The Pick

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NE -16

OVER 43.5

Three Woofs

BAL @ PIT – WEEK 5

Rewind ⏪to week 3. Some smart ass out there was saying “Let’s not buy The Ravens quite yet. They haven’t played any good competition yet”.

Dog didn’t care. My pea-brain was just excited to see The Ravens and Chiefs square off at Arrowhead. 

Then Cleveland rolled into Baltimore (Willingly) and made that smart as look, well…… smart. 

Sure, we don’t really know what the Ravens are yet. Their defense is not the Raven’s defense of the past decade and LamJacks is a dice roll every week. 

HOWEVER! We do know what the Steelers are. Aside from an OK front-7, this is a team that shed all their talent and is Swiss cheese everywhere else. Yinz is looking at a rebuild in Pittsburgh and we don’t need to be smart to know how to play this.

The Steelers looked interesting running the wildcat with Jaylen Samuels and Conner but it was against the Bengals. Harbaugh knows how important it is for Lamar Jackson to bounce back quickly after a couple of bad losses, so I expect their game plan to support it. The  Ravens rebound and cover 4.

The Pick

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BAL -4

OVER 42.5

Three Woofs

ARI @ CIN – WEEK 5

Both of these teams are still looking for their first win. This one’s gonna be messy.

The Bengals are just terrible, and JRoss 3 is out. Andy dalton is coming off a performance that left him peeling his sacked ass off the turf 8 times. I don’t like what Zac “The Sac” Taylor is doing so far.

But, I don’t trust Murray and the Cardinals either. This could be a shit show game so do not pound it. Let’s just say Bengals -4 because cardinals D is non existent…. Oh wait Cincinnati’s D is giving up EVEN MORE yards per play than the Cards.

Road Dog for This Dog. 🛣🐶

I’m breaking my Arizona OVERS play this week. I may have overestimated The Cardinal’s ability to put those late points on the board, and I don’t expect The Bengals to be helping out this week. Prove me wrong🙏

The Pick

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ARI +4

UNDER 48

One Woof

BUF @ TEN – WEEK 5

Some games are just gut games, and here’s how I feel.

The Titans have struggled this season with bright spots and head scratchers. They are very inconsistent and Mariota just isn’t trustworthy.

The Bills have been on a roll this year. Their last loss may have been their highlight of the year keeping it that close with The Patriots.

So I’m going with my gut.

The Bills as a dog? No doubt, it’s going in the dog pound.

I’ve got some more beyond the gut too. Yes, the teams play the game on the field, but this one feels like it’s just as much about coaching. Love Vrabel. Love McDermott just a little more. He’s got to go against the best in Belichick twice a year, and that makes you sharpers. He showed it last week.

How did this line never move? I’m onto you Vegas… 🤔The fact that Josh Allen is going to play and the line didn’t budge makes me think they knew all along. Who cares. Liked the Bills without Allen. Love it now.  

Buffalo is 3-1 against the spread so far, maybe Vegas isn’t so smart after all. I trust my gut, I love the coach, and the trend is my friend. Bills looking at 4-1.

Who’s a computer to place this bet for me?

The Pick

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BUF +3

OVER 38.5

Three Woofs.

ATL @ HOU – WEEK 5

I’ve heard a lot of talk over the past two weeks about how The Falcons are done. They peaked halfway through The Super Bowl and haven’t been pointing up since. 

Know what The Dog did even before that? I said the Texans are done. 

Ever since The Texans let The Jags come into Houston and beat them (even though through some video technicalities Houston did get the W) I drew a big fat line through The Texans.

Atlanta is near the bottom of the league in sacks, but that should change this week as Deshaun continues to be among the most-sacked QBs in the league. 

Karma is working against the Texans in this game that is sure to be a fair mix of awesome WR play and hot-garbage. I say it’ll be close and we take the points.

The Pick

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ATL +5

UNDER 48.5

One Woof

DAL @ NO – Week 4

The Cowboys are 3-0 and everyone is saying Dem Boys are for real. I’m not ready to go there. They beat an Eli-led Giants squad, a struggling Redskins team, and…. The Fins. 

The Saints have seen a little more competition. They lost Brees against the runner-up Rams and mailed in that game. Teddy B has since come on and got some defensive help last week along with a special teams TD to get out of Seattle with a win.

With all that said, The Dog is still going with Dem Boys.

Teddy is not likely to get another defense and special teams boost like he did last week and Dallas is consistently scoring 30+ points a game.

“But didn’t you just say that Dallas’ competition so far has been weak?” 

Yeah. I did. But the Saints defense is bottom 7 and Dak and crew should have another 30 point performance. 

Who Dat? It’s Dem Boys. Dallas will cover 3 even on the road and Pound the OVER. Dallas puts up 30 of the 46.

The Pick

DAL -3

OVER 46

Three Woofs

CIN @ PIT – Week 4

The Dog loves a shit show and a Week 4 divisional matchup where one team walks away with their first win is surely to be one. Unfortunately The Dog won’t be watching this one. 

Both of these offenses aren’t looking that great, but we do have some nice data to look at since they’ve both played the Niners and Seahawks this year already.

When you put side the beatdown that the Patriots laid on the The Steelers in week one, I have to take away that The Steelers seems to have just a little more pop. 

The Bengals are the real reason to look at Pittsburgh covering the 4 points. I had a blast watching the games at Kitty’s in Cincy last weekend, but it was an eye opener. This Bengals team is a dog, and not in the good way. 

Both of these teams sport bottom ranked defenses, but The Bengals terrible O-line will limit their ability to compete in this game.

Pitt covers 4 at home.

The Pick

PIT -4

UNDER 43.5

Two Woofs