I called it Road Team Dream Week before games kicked off Thursday and it did not disappoint. My only regret is that I didn’t play them all. We’d have been sitting pretty at 11-5 with wins ATS for Tampa, San Fran, Indy, New England, Buffalo, Seattle, Dallas, AZ, Jacksonville, KC, and Cleveland. The Dog went 11-11 starting hot in the early slate and giving it all back in the afternoon under some bizarre circumstances. The good news? My Dog Pound picks went 4-1. This Dog pounded those picks this week and I hope you did too.
Arizona & Baltimore was an exciting game down to the finish. Unfortunate The Dog didn’t cash that one. A Baltimore TD late would’ve sealed the deal on a 2 for 2 pick. Instead it went the other way. However, the way the game played out, The Dog is excited to be looking at playing Arizona in overs going forward.
Jacksonville at Houston was a nail biter for the game, but you shouldn’t have ever broken a sweat if you were looking to cash in on JAX @ +8.5. If they continue to hold opponents to scores in the teens, The Dog will be looking to Pound It with JAX more and more. The wrinkle will be how Jalen Ramsey’s public announcement wanting out of Jacksonville will impact the Jags D.
Falcons Home Dogs against the Eagles. The +3 was the result of the majority of the public thinking the Falcons wings were clipped for the season after the slow start in Minnesota during Week 1. The Dog doesn’t expect to see a tasty line like this in Week 3.
Both Brees and Roethlisberger get knocked out of their games in the first half. Saints & Stillers are both now looking at the backups to come in and steady the ship for 5-6+ games and the season, respectively. We’ll have to wait and see how Mason Rudolph and Teddy Bridgewater being the locked in starters will impact the lines.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
TB 20 CAR 14
CAR -7 ❌
UNDER 46.5 ✅
This was a sloppy game and it came with sloppy bets to boot. The Dog was happy to come away with cashing 1 of 2 bets here. Weather was certainly at play in this one as it bogged down both offenses.
The Dog wasn’t pleased with the ineffectiveness of the Carolina running game, especially their inability to punch it in with the game on the line.
They couldn’t punch it in, PERIOD.
It certainly makes me think twice going forward how much faith to put in a Cam Newton led Panthers team until they prove otherwise. It’s hard to say what makes this team so different from the 2015 NFC champs, but something is off.
None much to say on Tampa, they got the job done and spoiled The Dog from opening Week 2 on a high note.
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals
SF 41 CIN 17
SF pk ✅
Garoppolo & Company are starting to show some semblance of the 49ers of yesteryear. The game played out as expected, with SF putting up more points than they know what to do with and to make this an easy lock in a pick’em type matchup.
The Dog says the jury is still out on the 49ers Defense – certainly played well and got the job done but having gone against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati thru Week 2, we just haven’t seen them tested yet.
What this does tell me is I’m confident in the 49ers going with the Overs down the road. Who is with me?
Los Angeles Charger @ Detroit Lions
DET 13 LAC 10
LAC -3 ❌
UNDER 47.5 ✅🐾
24 Points UNDER. The Dog hopes you all got in on this Dog Pound pick (Under 47.5) and took it to the bank.
After 2 quick touchdowns, this game was riddled with WR dropped passes, TDs called back (more on that later), Redzone turnovers, and missed FGs (3 & and a PAT), leading to an easy Under.
Really expecting the Chargers to also get the Win and Cover, this one left The Dog puzzled beyond belief how it didn’t cash. Watching the replay again. Still in disbelief. However, I wouldn’t bet this one any differently.
If you didn’t catch the action, Chargers had 2 touchdowns called back on their first drive of the 2nd half due to offensive penalties.
The Dog has some questions on how to play the Chargers ATS after the way they showed here.
- At his advanced age, is Rivers too much as a senior Dog? Doggy don’t think so. He led a fantastic opening drive with some good throws that led to a touchdown leap (see #2). And despite the 2 TDs called back mentioned above, he showed the resilience of a junkyard dog to lead his team down to the Lions 1 before a 2nd Ekeler lead was spilled and recovered by the Lions. Aside from the one sack he took and the late INT, he navigated the pocket like a old hound with the spring of a young pup. WOOF WOOF.
- Melvin Gordon out for the indefinite future, how likely is it that the running back tandem of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson can fill the void? The Dog says no problem. These two shifty pass catching backs are perfect for the screen and scamper system which Rivers likes to operate.
Look for a tasty matchup next week for the Chargers at home against the Texans.
Onto the Lions – not a whole lot to say. The Offense under the Patricia is just too plain vanilla.
The Dog is looking forward to fading the Lions
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
GB 21 MIN 16
GB -3 ✅
The Dog’s head was spinning over this one, and when things look confusing, STOP THINKING.
The Dog said K.I.S.S. – Keep it simple stupid In hindsight this was a Three-Woofs-no-brainer. 🐶🐶🐶
Rodgers or Cousins?
Lambeau home field or A dome team on the road outside?
Turn that brain off and collect on your bets.
Rodgers looked phenomenal out the gate – leading the Packers to 3 scores in the first quarter and some change.
Packers ultimately held on for the cover but boy did The Dog start to sweat.
Jumping out 21-0 and then not tacking on a point in the final 44 minutes is usually the perfect recipe for the disastrous backdoor cover. Good thing the Packers D nailed down the doggy door the last 24 minutes to lock in the -3.
When you can’t be smart, be good. Kiss It! 😘💵
Unfortunately this one left me with more questions than answers:
- Are the Packers going to figure out how to play a whole game?
- Is the Packers defense for real?
- Is the Vikings offense going to have this split personality all season?
This Dog may just stop thinking for a while on these two.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
IND 19 TEN 17
TEN -3 ❌
Indianapolis took this one by a narrow margin. Brissett is no Andrew Luck, but The Dog bit too much on the Colts downswing.
As I said during last Week 2 picks, Colts have some talent but are still unproven. This might have just been their first proving game of many. A little coming out party for them so to speak.
If Brissett can game manage, they should have a nicely rounded offensive attack and looking forward to playing this coming Week 3 home opener against ATL. Check back for how The Dog will play that one.
Still love what I’m seeing out of Vrabel’s boys in Tennessee and still standing by calling them a top money maker for the year.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
NE 43 MIA 0
NE -19.5 ✅🐾
Hope you were a Pound Hound on this Dog Pound Pick of the Week.
Two pick 6’s were just a little insurance in this one, but Tommy took care of business in Road Team Dream week. Three Woofs all-the-way.
We know New England will be putting up points, eager to see how many they’ll hang on the Jets in Foxborough. I’m thinking 38 WOOF WOOF.
Even though we are likely seeing some record setting lines as Miami sells off their entire team, fading Miami ATS looks to be pretty safe until further notice.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants
BUF 28 NYG 14
NYG +1.5 ❌
Didn’t get to catch much of this one at all and didn’t play out as planned. Saquon put he NYFG up 7-0 early as expected. He had a respectable 18 carries for 107 yards, but was denied the ball in the passing game.
I said before this one that the G-Men have an easy problem to fix. Just feed Saquon. This squad might be further off than that.
Buffalo did more than enough to put this one out of reach for the Dog.
Josh Allen and Buffalo look to be an interesting offense. He’s always a threat on the ground, which will open up his passing attack. Really looking forward to their home opener in Week 3 against Cincinnati.
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
SEA 28 PIT 26
SEA +3.5 ✅
This was another unofficial Road Team Dream week pick. Unfortunate for Big Ben to go down and out for the season, which helped The Dog. But in all honesty, this Dog doesn’t think it mattered.
Seattle game-planned to victory and Russ delivered. He’s just a bulldog of a QB that gets it done. The Dog loves a bulldog. 🐶
Pittsburgh is trending down, but is for some reason shedding assets like they can actually win now. We’ll see if Mason Rudolph has what it takes as he’s now the defacto Big Dog in the Steel City and the future heir apparent for Big Ben.
This Dog doesn’t see it.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
DAL 31 WSH 21
DAL -6 ✅ 🐾
Dallas was the #1 Dog Pound Pick of Week 2.
Dak & The Gang Clocked In and The Dog was happily Locked In. Dallas got up and ahead early and never let this one in jeopardy.
Nice to see Dak Prescott completing a high rate percentage of his passes and another strong ground game out of Zeke.
Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens
BAL 23 ARI 17
BAL -13 ❌
OVER 46.5 ❌🐾
Football is a game of inches, and betting on football is…. frustrating.
This one was looking to be in the bag with Baltimore driving to go up 2 scores late, but then Baltimore somehow spends 2:57 inside the Arizona 15 to end the game. The Dog still can’t figure this one out, but it cost me the week and was the only Dog Pound bet to miss.
We got to put my theory to work and The Dog is drooling over this one.
Just call me The Bird Dog on this one because I’m pointing you to the AZ OVERs this year. The formula is simple and The Dog is going to take it to the bank.
The opposing team piles on in the first half while Kliff Kingsberry’s un-special Cardinals’ offense sputters. In the second half, and with a big lead, the Cardinals’ opponent falls asleep. Kyler and co pile on late.
If The Dog’s math is correct Pile A + Pile B = Pound the Arizona OVERs..
🐶🐶🐶
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
HOU 13 JAX 12
JAX +8.5 ✅🐾
Houston’s offense probably overswung a bit and reverted back to probably below the norm in terms of production. But in The Dogs eyes, JAX was going to keep it within a TD, which they did, and that’s why we’re proud this was one of the Dog Pound picks of the week.
20/20 hindsight The Dog wishes to have gotten in on the Under as this one played out pretty close to expected. But we ain’t gonna complain about cashing 1 of 1. We wouldn’t have played this any other way.
Gardener Minshew Jr. now has to be the guy in JAX, and needs to get all facets of the offense in play. Just hoping this guy puts on as much of a show during the game as much as he does before kickoff!
Texans at Chargers should be a fun matchup in the mid day games on Sunday. Check back in on Thursday morning for all you need to know about this one and see what The Dog is going to be pounding!
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
KC 28 OAK 10
KC -7.5 ✅
OVER 53.5❌
The early games were over and The Dog was feeling great. Better than 50% and I felt GREAT about my late afternoon picks.
Early into this one though, The Dog put his tail between his legs and got on the defensive.
Oakland jumped out to a 10-0 lead early in this one and The Dog was stunned at how he could’ve gotten this one so wrong. No way were the Raiders going to take it to Chiefs and hold them in check, Right? Right. Woof.
Patty Mahomes and Co. snapped back like a pitbull backed into a corner and went on the offensive, opening up the offense for 4 TDs in the 2nd quarter and The Dog knew the -7.5 was cashed.
The Chiefs D muzzled the Raiders for 0 points after the 1st Quarter.
The Raiders D muzzled the Chiefs for 0 points in the 2nd half.
What we would’ve done differently? Nothing.
We were 15.5 off the O/U and appeared to miss big time. But we’re not going to be betting on anyone bottling up the Chiefs offense for 0 points in a half for the rest of this season.
Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos
CHI 16 DEN 14
CHI -3 ❌
The Dog was right, and still somehow getting it wrong.
Denver didn’t really have much of an answer to the BEARS! Defense.
Flacco somehow got the Broncos into the endzone late.
Bears did what they had to do to get the W, but it wasn’t enough to cover.
A few Dog Biscuits on Mitch “Mitchell” aka Mr. Biscuit Trubisky.
Thru Week 2
- ZERO TDs
- 32nd in YDs/Attempt
- 32nd in YDs/Completion
- 27th in Completion %age
- 29th in Passing YDs/Game
- 31st in Passer Rating.
Mr. Biscuit & Matt Nagy better get the ball moving! For now, The Dog is going to have to be looking harder and harder at Bears UNDERS in scenarios when taking them ATS.
Not covering the 3 points here hurts!
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams
LAR 27 NO 9
NO +2 ❌
OVER 52 ❌
Sucker bets are only sucker bets when you don’t take them… Or when a hall of fame quarterback goes down slapping hands with Aaron Donald.
Brees is out with scheduled surgery on his throwing thumb which will, without a doubt, sideline him for many weeks.
In the interim, Teddy Bridgewater will take over and we’re just waiting to see how much Saints HC Sean Payton will dial back the playbook.
The Brees and Payton combo has been the one consistent down in New Orleans; how seamlessly can Bridgewater step into a complex and timing based offense?
For now, can Kamara shoulder the load of the Saints offense Week 3 on the road against Seattle? The Dog isn’t so sure.
Two young and exciting offenses square off when the LA Rams head into Week 3 at Cleveland. Check back at The Dog Pound to see how we’re playing this one, surely to be a Sunday Night Special at the Cleveland Pound!
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
ATL 24 PHI 20
ATL +3 ✅
The Home Dog in this one was a relatively easy play, especially in a home opener.
Atlanta got back to their bread and butter, with Matty Ice hooking up both of his star receivers with touchdowns and over 100 yards each. If he can limit the INTs moving forward and they can develop any kind of ground game, Falcons will be a Points Hound dream and look to be a more than favorable play in the future.
Not sure how the Wentz injury will impact the Eagles going forward, but if he takes any more licks like he did Sunday night, The Dog certainly doesn’t like the Eagles prospects.
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets
CLE -7✅
OVER 44❌
I just talked myself into the OVER. Both of these teams have something to prove and we won’t miss Darnold this week anymore than we miss the AAF.
The Dog Week 2
The Dog put himself in the Doghouse for talking myself into the OVER on this one. We may not have missed Darnold, but we definitely missed Darnold and Siemian.
This one just wrapped up as expected and couldn’t have been more confident on The Brownies, My Dogs, at -7.
The Brownies did exactly what was expected of them, grounding the Jets Offense on the tarmac.
The Mayfield led Browns offense with a lot of weapons will be exciting moving forward, but in all honesty should’ve been able to pile on more than they did in this game.
Not a whole lot else to say, the Jets will continue to struggle to put up points all year with anyone under center, especially if Darnold can’t get healthy and back on the field quick. With an above average defense and an inept offense, we’ll be eyeing some Jets UNDERs going forward.
2019 Record
The Dog Pound🐾 2019 Record: 4-1 🚀
The Dog’s 2019 Record: 11-11 ⚠️
Check back Thursday morning when The Dog will throw you another bone with his Picks, what you need to know and how you should play Pittsburgh @ San Fran, New Orleans @ Seattle, and the rest of the Week 3 plate of games.