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Week 7 Picks

Week 7 is in the books. Green Bay was lifted to a Monday night victory on the backs of the officials, Jamies Winston is back to finding the other team at an alarming rate, and the Dolphin won Tank Bowl 2019

My Dog Pound picks went 1-1, but I’m feeling like we turned a corner. We learned some things in week 6 that will help us make some money for the rest of the year.

Detroit was close to leaving Lambeau with a win on Monday night, but the refs intervened. To me, I don’t really care about that. We learned that The Lions showed the could play some ball and that you can’t leave the game in reach for Aaron Rodgers.

The Seahawks and Saints look like 2 teams that are going to methodically beat their opponents and we’ll never know how until they do it.

I also learned that I have to eat some crow on my views on Houston. Desahun can win some games with his legs and the Kansas City defense is going to cost this team some games. 

What else?

  • The Chargers are toast.
  • Dallas, WTF?
  • San Francisco has some huevos.
  • Ravens, still question marks.
  • Matt Bryant… .Gulp
  • Kirk Cousins, due for  a major collapse.

So here’s the picks I am pounding this week.

OAK @ GB

I could make up a lot of reasons for my pick here.

I could say Karma catches up to GB and they give one back.

I could say that Oakland is coming off a bye and the Packers are coming off a short week.

But, I’ll be honest. I chalk this pick up to one thing alone. All the goddamn film Gruden has seen of Aaron Rodgers from his time in the Monday Night Football Booth. God did he tell us all about it.

Man. Aaron Rodgers, man.

Jon Gruden

Gruden is out to teach young Matt LaFleur a thing or two about a thing or two. I suspect that he takes away anything the Packers can do well and makes this game miserable just as he did to the Bears in London.

I could see the classic Packers field goal as time expires to win it, and I could see Chucky and crew leaving GB with a win, but I’ll take the points and spare myself the moneyline cardiac arrest.

The Pick

OAK +4.5

MIA @ BUF

This one is all gut.

I just don’t see a world where the Bills win by 17.

If the Bills defense have another dominant outing, I see the Bills offense playing lazy and winning 10-0 or 17-3.

If the Dolphins get the Fitzmagic bump and they put up 10 or more I just can’t see the Bills putting up enough to cover.

I also love to play games when the Vegas score is bunk. Vegas has this one going 29-12. The Bills have not scored 29 all year (yes, I know it’s the Dolphins), but the Dolphins have only score more than 10 points once this year, and it was last week against the pathetic Redskins.

Take the under if you like, but take the 2TD and 1 FG lead at kickoff and cash it.

The Pick

MIA +17

MIN @ DET

I’m basing this pick on 3 things.

One. I think Detroit is ready to win. There run game is respectable, the defense is respectable, Stafford can still sling the ball, and they’ve got a coach who is used to winning. Swallowing that loss on Monday Night win had to be tough, but they showed they can win on the road and this one is at home.

Two. I don’t believe this Kirk Cousins streak. Yes, he has strung together two good game, but he’s got a history that shows us that this won’t last. I’ll argue that they came against pretty shitty defenses and low pressure offensive drives. The Lions aren’t a top five D by any means, but I expect the Lions to keep it closer and make Kirk come back to earth

Three. The Lions just need this win more. The NFC North could easily get out of hand at 2-3-1 for the Lions. Minnesota on the other hand is over that scare coming off a two-game win streak and are due for a lackluster game

The Lions should win straight up, take these points.

The Pick

DET +2

BAL @ SEA

Home field advantage is worth 3. I have to think home field advantage in Seattle is worth more. So, you’re telling me The Ravens should be favored on a neutral site? Hell no!

I’ll admit, I love watching LamJax do what he’s doing. I’m worried for him in this one. This is going to be a sloppy game in the rain where passing will be tough and planting those feet in the ground running will be nasty. Pair that with the 12th man noise and the cross country trip and The Seahawks win this battle of the birds.

I’m also very impressed with Seattle. Russell Wilson is having an MVP caliber season so far this year. His play and experience with Carroll’s game planning makes the Seahawks a top 3 NFC team in my book. 

The Pick

SEA -3

The Dog’s 2019 Record

Dog Pound 10-12 👎

MIN @ DET – Week 7

I’m basing this pick on 3 things.

One. I think Detroit is ready to win. There run game is respectable, the defense is respectable, Stafford can still sling the ball, and they’ve got a coach who is used to winning. Swallowing that loss on Monday Night win had to be tough, but they showed they can win on the road and this one is at home.

Two. I don’t believe this Kirk Cousins streak. Yes, he has strung together two good game, but he’s got a history that shows us that this won’t last. I’ll argue that they came against pretty shitty defenses and low pressure offensive drives. The Lions aren’t a top five D by any means, but I expect the Lions to keep it closer and make Kirk come back to earth

Three. The Lions just need this win more. The NFC North could easily get out of hand at 2-3-1 for the Lions. Minnesota on the other hand is over that scare coming off a two-game win streak and are due for a lackluster game

The Lions should win straight up, take these points.

The Pick

DET +2

The Dog’s Week 7 MIN @ DET Pick

Week 6 Picks

My dog pound picks need work. No. Doubt. About It. I was 0-5 in week 4. I barely saved face last week going 3-2.

I’m changing it up a bit this week. Moving forward I’m done picking all the games even though I was 52-54-3 picking all the dog crap games. I’ll be picking the bets I love this week and that’s that.

The Picks

HOU @ KC

I do not believe in this Texans team. Their O line continues to be a problem even with the addition of Laremy Tunsil early this season. I think this O-Line will even let the Chiefs defense look competent.

I also do not think the Houston wins are very convincing. They beat a Jags team in Houston (Which the Jags arguably won on that 2pt conversion), They fended off a Chargers comeback attempt in week 3, and they beat the Falcons who aren’t the same team we saw lose in the Super Bowl 2 years ago.

I will concede that their Week 1 opener against the Saints on the road was a bright spot, even though it was a loss. The point is, the Texans beat ok-to-bad teams at best. This Chiefs team is much better than that. Houston is not leaving Arrowhead with a win.

You have to go back to Weeks 5 and 7 of 2015 to find the last time that an Andy Reid Chiefs team lost consecutive home games and you have to go all the way back to Reid’s first season with the Chiefs in 2013 to find the last time they dropped 2 home games in 2 weeks. Arrowhead provides one of the best home field advantages and we’ll see that on Sunday.

I have no doubt the Chiefs will win this game. The question is, will they cover? The Dog’s gut says they win by double digits. But, if you want a stat, I got my stats guy on that too. Under Coach Reid the Chiefs have covered 67% of the time when favored at home by 5 points or less.

Three Woofs! Pound it.

The Pick

KC -4.5

SEA @ CLE

I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t think about the Seahawks much. 

Maybe it is the fact that they are tucked away in the corner of the country. Maybe it’s just their reputation of just being an under the radar team that makes hay in the playoffs. Maybe I’m just genuinely jealous of Russell Wilson. Whatever.

But they’re playing my Brownies so let’s pay some attention. I was expecting to see the Browns a 3 point dog or more and seeing the 1 point made me very confused. What does Vegas know that I don’t?

Answer….. A WHOLE LOT.

Now, I am not the smartest guy on earth, but I know that the quarterback matters in the NFL. 

Whenever I am confused by a game I always turn the brain off and tell myself to K.I.S.S. it. Keep It Simple Stupid.

So let’s turn off those brains and let’s keep it simple and look at the quarterbacks.

Russell Wilson

  • Top passer rating in the league this year at 126.3
  • Has not throw a pick this year on 150+ attempts
  • Works with what he’s got

Baker Mayfield

  • Third lowest passer rating in the NFL at 68.5 
  • Leads the league with 8 picks this year on 150+ attempts
  • Can’t figure it out with OBJ, Landry, and Nick Chubb

Don’t overthink this one. Tell Vegas to shove it and take this one To. The. Bank.

Three Woofs. Pound it!

The Pick

SEA -1

The Dog’s 2019 Record

Dog Pound: 9-11 👎

GB @ DAL – WEEK 5

Both teams coming off a loss. And, both of these teams were on The Dog’s All-Sad team last week where the Dog Pound Picks went 0-5.🐶 🗑🔥

I’m keeping this one simple. Both teams need to rebound and Vegas has this a pickem’ on neutral site.

The simplest way to think about NFL football is to look at the quarterbacks. It’s the most important position in sports, and only one of these teams is sporting one of the best of all time.

Dak is playing out of his mind, and Jerry may have to make him the highest paid player when it’s all said and done. But he is not Aaron Rodgers. 

Despite all the crap he gives us as a person, his talent is undeniable and I’m going to ride him to the bank this week. 

After Dallas embarrassed themselves in NO, I don’t expect a rebound. I expect teams to play the Cowboys just like the Saints did. No way I’m betting against Rodgers in this one. 

It just missed the Dog Pound. Who has a charger so I can plug in my phone to place this bet?

The Pick

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GB +3.5

OVER 46.5

Three Woofs

CLE @ SF – WEEK 5

Have you ever talked to a dog and they tilt their head in confusion?

That is me right now. I am a confused dog.

Both of these teams are big question marks.

The Niners are sporting an 3-0 record, but the world (including me) aren’t ready to believe it. I’m not writing them off. When it comes to yardage per play they are top 5 on both sides of the ball. But do those stats matter when they came against The Bucs with Old Jameis, The rebuild Steelers, and the dog-poop Bengals?

Doggy don’t think so.

The preseason Super Bowl Champion Browns are icing all bruises from reality smashing them in the face. Surprise win against the Ravens (another question mark) and a surprise loss against the Titans to start the year. Bone headed coaching calls. Am I ready to say I believe in my fellow Dawg Pound?

Doggy don’t think so.

All of this and I have no trends here. Who will be my friend with no trend?

Browns 2-2 ATS. Browns 2-2 OVERs and UNDERs

Niners 2-1 ATS. Niners 1-2 OVERs and UNDERs

Look. I’d stay away from this one unless you’re trying to win it all back Monday night. It’ll be close, take the points.

… Which I probably will be. So, who’s putting this pick in for me? My phone is dead!

Image result for confused dog
I am a confused dog

The Pick

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CLE +3.5

OVER 46.5

DEN @ LAC – WEEK 5

The story and the stats don’t line up in this one.

The story goes like this. Vic Fangio is a defensive mastermind and is coming into a defense with Von Miller, Chris Harris Jr, and Derek Wolfe, etc etc and he’s going to figure out the scheme that makes this the 85’ Bears mixed with the Steel Curtain of the 70’s.

The story in Cali is that Bosa and Ingram are going to leaving dents of QBs on the turf with how much pressure they’ve got.

Two DEFENSIVE BEASTS with aging Quarterbacks, pound the under.

NOPE! Doggy don’t think so!

These stories are great. Almost as great as The John Wick series. But they’re FAKE! All these signs that say take the UNDER means take the OVER. And Pound It!

Both of these teams sport middle of the pack defenses. 12 and 13 respectively both at 6.1 yards per play. The Chargers have done a better job of keeping points off the board, just breaking in the top-ten at #10, but the Broncos have allowed 93 points this year and are below average.

I think this one will be close at halftime and second half Rivers shows up.

I love the OVER here. I’ve got no cell service. Who can put this bet in for me?

The Pick

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LAC -6.5

OVER 44.5

Three Woofs

Dog Pound – Week 5

Thanks for coming over to the Pound. We know you’re busy in a time pinch.  So is The Dog. If you’re going to read anything, read these picks. I owe y’all one!

No dogs in this pound. Not this week. My Dog Pound Picks took a shellacking last week, going 0-5, so we’ve got to have a bounce back. Need it. AND, Got to have it.

The plan is simple. Big Tasty Overs that can’t miss. Don’t over think it.

Cats have 9 lives. This Dog has 5 picks. Now GO POUND THESE PICKS! You’ll be glad you did.

Three Woofs. 🐶🐶🐶

Pound These Picks

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BUF +3

PHI -14

BAL -4

BAL @ PIT OVER 42.5

DEN @ LAC OVER 44.5

TB @ NO – WEEK 5

Holy Buccaneer-oly!

Jameis finally realized he’s playing for his next contract (and likely his career as an NFL starter). The Bucs traveled across the country, and Left LA with a win. Maybe Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich are the QB whispers we thought they were and they got through to Jameis. He’s only thrown 2 picks over the last three games.

That all great, but seriously… Sean Peyton is looking like a coach of the year winner after the first quarter of this season and the Saints are simply going to find ways to win. 

The Saints have been sitting pretty in NOLA for the past 2 weeks while the Bucs are playing their second game in a row on the road. Jameis owes us some picks, we’re going to see them

The Cowboys rolled into the Superdome last weak and left scratching their heads, Expect the same thing to happen to the Bucs this week.

What do you think about that Drew?

Two Thumbs Way Up!

The Pick

NO – 3.5

OVER 47

Two Woofs

JAX @ CAR – WEEK 5

The. Dog. Likes.

Grrrrr! Am I rearin’ to go for this one. 

The Dog

If I could know the answer to one question this week it would be; “A battle of the cats, Jaguar or Panther? Who ya got Mike Leach? @MikeLeach” 

Is Nard Dog ready to roll again this week? YES.

Is Gardener Minshew 2 ready to roll again this week?

Jags get 20 pts on the scoreboard just for Minshew waking up Sunday morning.

Onto the Panthers outlook. Jags will be the best defense that Kyle Allen has gone up against in his 3rd career start; I don’t see him solving this puzzle.

McCafferey will with all his might try to put up a fight in this one and keep it close, but ultimately the Jags are out for blood and come out on top in this one.

The Pick

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JAX +3.5 

OVER 41