Month: September 2019

Dog Pound – Week 3

Dog Pound 2019 Record: 4-1 ✅

Thanks for coming over to the Pound. We know you’re busy in a time pinch.  So is The Dog. Gotta get on the road and head over to @BuffaloTrace and gonna have himself a DAY! Hoping that you all have yourself a DAY too this fine Saturday. 

Dirty Dog & the Boys had a long drive over to Lexington yesterday.  That means you can be assured that we put the time in to get these picks right.  That’s why these 5 are in the Pound this week.

Thanks for stopping by The Pound and we hope you adopt these picks. Now GO POUND THESE PICKS! You’ll be glad you did.

Three Woofs. 🐶🐶🐶

Pound These Picks

  1. DEN @ GB – UNDER 43.5
  2. LAR -3 
  3. SEA -4
  4. KC -7
  5. NYG @ TB – UNDER 48

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BAL @ KC – Week 3

Baltimore was the swing game for The Dog last week. 

If the Ravens don’t spend the final 4 minutes deep in AZ territory and actually get in the endzone The Dog is sitting pretty at 13-9 and my Dog Pound picks would be a perfect 5-0. 

So here’s the plan to get it back.

First, I’m looking at the Ravens. There’s a lot of talk about the Ravens being a top 2 or 3 team in the AFC. But, keep in mind they feasted on the Dolphins and held on in for a 4th quarter win against the Cardinals at home. 

The Dog isn’t ready to label The Ravens Three Woofs yet.

Next, I’m looking at these defenses.

KC’s run defense might not be the stoutest, especially with Dee Ford and Justin Houston having moved on. And, Ed Reed ain’t walking through that door to save a Baltimore defense that got torn up by Kyler Murray last week for 349 passing yards.

Two defenses that will allow some points. Two offenses that can put points on the board. Reid and Mahomes are more tested. Harbaugh and Lamar are still a question mark.

That adds up to a Chiefs cover. This one is in the Dog Pound.

The Pick

KC -7

Three Woofs

NO @ SEA – Week 3

First on the Saints. 0-2 ATS this year.  This offense will no longer fly by wind, Without a Brees for the indefinite future.  They’ll look to QB by committee in Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater. As I said in our Week 2 Recap; Interested to see how Payton will steer the offense given a new field general under center.

Last time Seattle was 2-0. Went on to win the Super Bowl.  Same QB. Same Coach. I’m a systems guy @andrewperloff, and I like what the Seahawks are running.  Russell is a top 5 player in the league impacting the spread. He goes, they go! Come on Russ – HugoWego!

At Home, The Dog likes Seahawks to bottle up the Saints.

The Pick

SEA -4

UNDER 44

OAK @ MIN – Week 3

Oakland @ Minnesota

The Vikings are arguably one the most talented teams in the NFC.  Good defense. Good weapons at all positions on offense.

Dalvin Cook has sure been up to the task of carrying the offense –  130YPG on the ground to go along with 3 touchdowns. But you can’t win in the current NFL against good teams by just pounding the rock.

Is there a glaring weakness holding them back? Maybe. Has @DPShow fan favorite Kirk D. Cousins; shout out @AndrewPerloff @PaulPabst, delivered on his big contract?  Seems that Minnesota may be trying to hide him. Only giving him 10 passing attempts in a Week 1 win against the Falcons. Sub 50% completion with 2 picks against the Pack in a game they could’ve won.  He NEEDS to have his breakout game this week!

Oakland came out hot against KC last week.  And, maybe Jon Gruden can coach an offense after all that time in the booth.  Expect them to get their a TD or 2, but that roster can’t hang with top notch teams for all 60 minutes just yet. 

Vikings will control this one and win big at home.

The Pick

MIN – 8 

OVER 42

Two Woofs

DET @ PHI – Week 3

Desean Jackson-hurt. Alshon Jeffrey-hurt. Nelson Agholor-hurt. Tim Jernigan-hurt. Malik Jackson-hurt. Carson Wentz took a shot last week that sent him back to the 2nd grade.  Philly is beat up right now & Lions Coach Matt Patricia chomping at the bit looking to take advantage. 

Ertz can’t catch every pass for the Eagles, and their running game has been stuck in neutra so far this year.  Detroit is relatively balanced on both sides of the ball, and has looked surprisingly good for their standards this season. Matt Stafford and the Lions can and will cover this, if not come away with the outright win.

With all the Eagles injuries above and Patricia still unwilling to unleash Stafford and spice up the mild Lions offensive play-calling, The Dog won’t be eating up the Over in this flavorless dish; Taking the Under here.

The Pick

DET + 7 

UNDER 48 

Two Woofs

NYG @ TB – Week 3

New York heads into this one with a newly appointed field general in Daniel Jones. Does that spark the Giants offense? The Dog thinks so. So long as the Giants make Saquon a major part of the game plan, they will have fixed their two biggest problems.

This line is too big to not take NYG. TB got out with a W on the road last week against a Panthers team that isn’t looking so good. They might give one back; they might prove they’ll be competitive.  The Dog going with NYG ATS +6.5 

By no means is this one going to be a shootout though.  How much is Pat Shurmur going to open the playbook for Daniel Jones? Bucs running game looks pretty average at best. The Dog says this one plays out as such.

Both teams will be so worried about getting the W that watching this one will be like watching paint dry.  A conservative chess checkers match. A field position, punt-fest, clock management symposium with either team winning by a FG or less. 

The Pick

NYG +6.5

UNDER 48

ATL @ IND – Week 3

Everyone wrote of the Colts when Andrew luck retired, but they could be 2-0 except for Adam Vinatieri missing 2 field goals and 3 extra points already.

Indy has one of the best offensive lines in the league and Marlon Mack is enjoying every second of it with 225 yards in 2 games. It gives Jacoby Brissett enough protection to give me confidence he can jockey these Colts.

Falcons Needed a late miracle TD to collect a big win over the Eagles on Sunday night. Lot of money on the Falcons brings this line down to as low as -1 at some points as it opened the week at -3. 

To hit the O/U, you’re going to need 6 TDs and 2 FGs.  Gonna be close, but when isn’t it. Vegas is good at what they do.

The Dog will be on premise for this one.  Home teams making a comeback this week and Indy to take this one.  If you can find Colts at -1 or -1.5; The Dog says hop all over it and Pound It!  Even Colts -2 still looks to be in your favor. The Dog is gonna get in on the Over in this one.

The Pick

IND -1

OVER 47

NYJ @ NE – Week 3

New England hasn’t given up a touchdown yet this season and Luke Falk isn’t going to break that streak.

Lot of people are going to default to taking New York Jets in this one saying that 23 is just too many points to spot ATS.  Doggy don’t think so. Here’s the why.  

New England has gone for 30 and 43 points this season. They haven’t let opponents into the endzone either.  That means that both those margins of victory would’ve covered this spread.

They’ve demonstrated that they are going to go out every game with one goal in mind;  Lay It On Thick Whilst Preserving The Shutout. Mark the Jets down as the 3rd victim of The Bill Belichick Body Bag Tour of 2019.  

That’s why The Dog likes the Pats ATS in this one.

People have been questioning why the Pats didn’t back off against Miami.  See what Kevin Van Noy has to say about it!  

The Dog doesn’t expect the Pats to buck trend and change their philosophy against an AFC East divisional opponent.  Pats will take it to the Jets for 60 minutes of football and won’t be letting up until after the final whistle blows.  

Belichick will be using this as another tune up game for getting Antonio Brown acclimated to the offense for when the games really matter, so I expect them to continue to try and rack up points & Lay It On Thick.  

Dog goin’ over.

The Pick

NE -23

OVER 43.5

DEN @ GB – Week 3

GB’s new offense with Matt Lafleur hasn’t clicked yet with only 31 points over 2 games.

Last week against the Vikings Aaron Rodgers and the pack got off to a very hot start but cooled off and never seemed to pull it back together. The second half looked like the McCarthty-coached sideline with Rodgers visibly upset. 

This Dog doesn’t feel ready to say the QB and coaching situation has been fixed up north. We all know what happens when Aaron doesn’t like you, just ask his family. 

The Packers’ defense has done a 180. Three woofs. Doggy Likey.

Denver has only given up 4 tuts in 2 games, and new head coach Vic fangio is one of the best defensive minds in the game. but Denver keeps it close enough to cover.

Joe Flacco clearly does not have a ton left in the tank, but last week the Broncos and Bears needed every second of the game to determine the winner. Both had staunch defenses. Using that game as some evidence, this Dog is convinced that this is going to feel just like the Packers and Bears season opener. 

This line and total feels perfectly set, but The Dog feel like it’s going to be low scoring and close. GB win with a Denver cover. This Dog likes this dog, but just barely.

The Pick

DEN +7.5

UNDER 43.5

One Woof

I’ll Take GB -6.5 if it moves that far.

GB -350

PIT @ SF – Week 3

Mason Rudolph didn’t embarrass himself last week coming in for an injured Ben Roethlisberger, but this week he has a whole new challenge going out to the west coast. Will he progress? Is the PIT offense just average now? No Brown, No Ben, No Bell… 

The vaunted PIT defense has not looked like themselves this year either, giving up 61 points in their first 2 games. Will MInkah Fitzpatrick change that? 

I wonder, is this run of competitive Pittsburgh twams coming to an abrupt end?

With all these questions, remember one of The Dog’s classic lessons: when things look confusing, stop thinking.

What QB are you going to take here? Mason Rudolph? Or, Jimmy G?

Would you want to play at home? Or, travel across the country on the road? 

K.I.S.S. Great Band. Great advice. Keep It Simple Stupid.

S.F. is 2-0 against spread this year while The Steelers are 0-2. I’m not buying that Pittsburgh has has what it takes to hang close and will have a long flight home after another tough loss.

Couple this with the fact that the Shannahan offense has proven it could hang some points on opponents, the OVER play is looking three-woofs.

The Pick

SF -6.5

OVER 44

Three Woofs